Here are my weekly NFL predictions, which you can also find on Pickswise. For NFL Week 9, I’ve picked out the Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings matchup. I have also chosen the Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers NFC North game with TWO different best bets.
Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings Predictions
Colts vs Vikings Point Spread Pick: Minnesota -5 (-110) – ⭐ ️BEST BET ⭐
The Indianapolis Colts travel to Minnesota for Sunday Night Football to take on the Vikings, and I’m all in the hosts this week. The Colts announced that QB Joe Flacco will start this weekend, as the 2023 #4 overall pick QB Anthony Richardson heads to the bench after just 10 career games. Flacco gives Indianapolis a better chance to win, but he could struggle against the Vikings defense. The Colts fell to the Houston Texans on the road 23-20 last week, which moved their away record to 1-3 this season.
The Vikings fell to the LA Rams last week on Thursday Night Football 30-20, which ended with a Rams safety due to a missed facemask call. This marked Minnesota’s second loss, but they now enter this game with extra rest, and I expect them to be fully prepared for the Colts. Additionally, TE T.J. Hockenson should make his season debut after suffering a brutal knee injury last year, which gives QB Sam Darnold another weapon to utilize. Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores recently faced Flacco when he was the head coach of the Miami Dolphins, and he blitzed the former Jets QB 48 times across two games. Historically, Flacco has struggled with facing the blitz, and the Jets suffered 24-0 and 24-17 defeats against Flores’ defensive scheme. The Vikings lead the NFL in total blitzes (133) and blitz rate (41.4%) this season, which should be on full display this week.
Minnesota has the third-toughest strength of schedule in the NFL, and the Colts are 0-3 against the Texans and Packers, who Minnesota beat. Finally, the Vikings’ team total is 26.5, while the Colts’ sits at 20.5. Typically, there would be a five-point difference between team totals with a spread at -5, giving me another reason to love MIN. Expect Flores to bring the heat early and often, and I anticipate the Vikings will bounce back with a win by 7+ on Sunday Night Football.
Colts vs Vikings prediction: Minnesota -5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -6.
Colts vs Vikings Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Over 46.5
The second one of my Colts vs Vikings picks centers around Sunday’s contest being an up-and-down affair. I touched on how Joe Flacco could struggle against the Vikings’ defensive scheme, but they should put up at least 20 points. In Flacco’s three starts, Indianapolis has averaged 24.7 points per game, which is equal to the Chiefs’ average this season (9th in the NFL). Additionally, the Vikings have struggled in their last two games against Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff, and their only saving grace for their defense is that they may get LB Blake Cashman back this week.
On the other side of the ball, I expect the Vikings offense to have its way with this Indianapolis defense. The Colts are giving up 379.6 yards per game (28th in the NFL) and are particularly bad at stopping the run (151.9 rushing yards allowed per game – 30th in the NFL). Minnesota isn’t a run-heavy team by any means, but I expect them to take a run-heavy approach on Sunday because they are 4-1 this season when rushing for 110+ yards. The one area the Colts defense is strong in is their redzone defense, as they’re giving up a touchdown on just 57.1% of redzone drives (15th in the NFL). However, Minnesota is scoring a touchdown on 65% of their redzone drives (8th in the NFL), so I don’t expect them to settle for field goals this Sunday.
The Vikings are averaging 26.9 PPG this season (7th in the NFL), and their last two games finished over the total. Since Kevin O’Connell took over in 2022, the total has gone over in 9 out of 12 games (75%) in which the Vikings were home favorites. Expect Minnesota to have its way with this Colts defense, as this game should finish with 47+ points.
Colts vs Vikings prediction: Over 46.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 47.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Predictions
Lions vs Packers Point Spread Pick: Green Bay +3.5 (-105) – ⭐ ️BEST BET ⭐
The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers face off this Sunday in a pivotal NFC North matchup with serious division implications. The Lions have a slim lead in the NFC North and are winners of five straight, but the Packers are behind them and riding a four-game winning streak. The biggest storyline entering this week will be the status of Packers QB Jordan Love after the playcaller suffered a groin injury in Week 8, but Adam Schefter reported that he expects Love to play, and Green Bay Head Coach Matt LaFleur stated that Love is pushing to play on Sunday, even if he doesn’t practice all week.
Detroit has been an absolute wagon during this five-game winning streak, as they’ve gone 5-0 ATS and are putting up 38.4 PPG. However, it’s worth noting that the combined record of the five teams they’ve played during this stretch is 17-20. Additionally, the Vikings are the only team they’ve played this season that currently has a winning record, and they won that game by just 2 points, as it came down to a game-winning FG. Detroit has done a great job at limiting opponents scoring (19.1 PPG – 8th in the NFL), which has mainly been due to their redzone defense (9th in the NFL), but there are some glaring holes in their secondary (247.6 passing yards allowed per game – 27th in the NFL). I expect Love to take advantage of their passing defense, and the Packers score a TD on 64.3% of redzone drives at Lambeau Field this year (11th in the NFL).
While Love’s status is worth monitoring leading up to kickoff, I plan to back Green Bay with or without their starting QB. Backup QB Malik Willis is 2-0 when filling in for Love this season, and LaFleur is notorious for his ATS record as an underdog. Since taking over the Packers, he has gone 22-10 ATS as an underdog overall and 17-4 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points. Combine this with the fact that Jared Goff historically struggles when playing outdoors (38% more interceptions, 10% lower passer rating and 18% fewer touchdowns per attempt per game), and you have a perfect opportunity to back the home team with the points this Sunday at Lambeau.
Lions vs Packers prediction: Green Bay +3.5 (-105) available at the time of publishing, playable down to +3.
Lions vs Packers Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Under 48 (-108)
The second half of my Lions vs Packers picks centers around Sunday’s contest being an ugly affair. I already mentioned how QB Jordan Love is banged up entering this game, and although Detroit’s passing defense is weak, the Packers will need to rely on their ground game to help keep the Lions explosive offense off the field. Green Bay ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (156.9), and Detroit’s defense just suffered another injury blow, as LB Malcolm Rodriguez suffered an ankle injury last week against the Titans and will likely miss this game.
On the flip side, the only thing that needs to be said is Jared Goff playing outdoors. Rain is in the forecast for Green Bay on Sunday, and temperatures should be in the 50s. This is the Lions first game outdoors this season, and Detroit suffered a 28-13 defeat at the Chicago Bears in Goff’s most recent outdoor game, as the QB tallied just 161 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs while completing just 57.1% of his passes. It’s safe to say that the Californian kid enjoys playing in sunny environments or inside a dome, so I’ll back the Under this Sunday in Green Bay.
Lions vs Packers prediction: Under 48 (-108) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 48 (-125).