Check out my NFL predictions on Pickswise this week. For NFL Week 6, I analyzed two matchups between the AFC North and NFC East. Keep reading to learn who I’m siding with in the Cleveland Browns vs Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders vs Baltimore Ravens games this Sunday.
Cleveland Browns vs Philadelphia Eagles predictions
Browns vs Eagles Point Spread Pick: Cleveland +8.5 (-110)
The 1-4 Cleveland Browns travel to Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday afternoon for a match against the 2-2 Philadelphia Eagles. The Browns enter this one after suffering their third straight defeat, this time by a 34-13 scoreline to the Washington Commanders. It has been a season to forget for the Deshaun Watson-led Browns, and I’m not sure how much longer he will have his starting job. Cleveland is dead-last in the NFL in total yards per game (239.4) and 30th in points per game (15.8). All signs would typically point to another Browns loss, but the Eagles haven’t exactly played up to expectations through four games this season.
Philadelphia is coming off their bye week, which couldn’t have come at a better time. The Eagles fell to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4 33-16, and their offense hasn’t looked great since their opening Week 1 victory in Brazil against the Packers 34-29. They did lose star wideout AJ Brown after that game, and DeVonta Smith missed the game against the Bucs, but both WRs should be back in the starting offense this Sunday. However, I’m not confident that QB Jalen Hurts can cover such a big spread.
The Eagles QB is just 25-27-2 all-time against the spread, and the Philly playcaller is 18-20-2 ATS as a favorite. On the other side, Watson is 20-14 ATS as an underdog. Additionally, the Eagles haven’t been great at covering spreads of 6+ points the last two regular seasons, as they are 5-10-2 ATS as a 6+ point favorite and just 1-7 ATS as an 8+ point favorite. The Browns have been dreadful this season, but I expect to see some sort of response eventually, so I’ll back them with the points in Philly.
Browns vs Eagles prediction: Browns +8.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to +8.
Browns vs Eagles Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Over 43.5 (-110)
The second half of my Browns vs Eagles prediction relies on the Browns offense finally coming alive so that the game remains close. That’s mainly because I expect their defense to give up plenty of points to the Eagles. While there was plenty of hype surrounding this Cleveland defense entering the season, they’ve allowed 24.2 points per game (23rd in the NFL). Not only have they struggled this year, but they lost multiple players during their recent defeat to the Commanders in Week 5, as four defensive starters are currently questionable for Sunday’s contest. They haven’t played many good offenses this year either, as they’ve gone up against the Cowboys (15th in scoring), Jaguars (21st in scoring), Giants (27th in scoring), Raiders (23rd in scoring) and Commanders (1st in scoring).
Similarly, the Eagles defense hasn’t been great this season either, as they’ve allowed 24.0 PPG (22nd in the NFL), and the best offense they’ve faced was the New Orleans Saints or Green Bay Packers, who have both shown weaknesses against other opponents. Additionally, they’ve been weak at home since last season, as the Eagles are giving up 27.8 PPG in their last 10 games at Lincoln Financial Field.
I’d put this Philly offense somewhere between Dallas and Washington, given they’ll have both star WRs back, so I anticipate the Eagles will put up anywhere from 24 to 35 points. However, their defense will likely give up 21+ points, as they’ve only held their opponents to fewer than 21 points in two of their last 10 home games. The previous 10 regular season games at Lincoln Financial averaged 56.3 PPG, and eight of them featured 44+ points. Expect both trends to continue this Sunday and back the Over as the second of my Browns vs Eagles best bets.
Browns vs Eagles prediction: Over 43.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 44.
Washington Commanders vs Baltimore Ravens predictions
Commanders vs Ravens Point Spread Pick: Baltimore -6.5 (-110) – ⭐ ️BEST BET ⭐
The Washington Commanders will have to travel about a half-hour north to take on the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium, and I expect a big win for the hosts. After starting the season 0-2, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have rattled off three straight wins, taking down the Cowboys, Bills and Bengals. The offense has been playing well all season, most recently putting up 41 points in Cincinnati, 27 of which came after halftime, and I anticipate another big week against a Commanders defense allowing 23.0 PPG (20th in the NFL). RB Derrick Henry has looked like his former self in their three wins, as he’s recorded 442 rushing yards in that span and can feast on Washington, who gives up 130.0 rushing yards per contest (22nd in the NFL).
Jayden Daniels is the frontrunner for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the talented QB hasn’t faced many experienced defenses outside the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who dealt Washington their lone loss. Although they’ve been lighting it up the past three weeks (38.0 PPG), those games were against the Bengals, Cardinals and Browns, who rank 31st, 27th and 24th in points allowed per contest. Additionally, the Commanders have done a lot of damage on the ground, as they average 178.4 rushing yards per contest (2nd in the NFL), but Baltimore is giving up just 60.4 yards per game on the ground (1st in the NFL).
The Ravens failed to cover as -8.5 favorites against the Raiders earlier this year, but they also lost that contest. In Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ last 10 home victories, they have won by an average of 17.8 points. When Baltimore wins at home, they win big, which I expect them to do this Sunday.
Commanders vs Ravens prediction: Ravens -6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to -7.
Commanders vs Ravens Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Under 52.5 (-110)
The second half of my Commanders vs Ravens predictions is for Sunday’s contest to finish with fewer than 53 points. I expect both teams to utilize their rushing attack this Sunday, as they rank #1 and #2 in rushing yards per contest. This will lead to longer drives and fewer drives for both teams, as the clock will continue to run for the majority of the contest. Additionally, I don’t expect Washington to have too much success against this Baltimore defense, as they will aim to take away the Commanders’ rush game, which they’ve relied on heavily this year.
On the other hand, the Ravens should be able to put up points, but I think they need to score 35+ for this game to finish over the total. Baltimore’s games have finished with 47, 49, 53, 45 and 79 points, so they’re just 2-3 to an over/under of 52.5, while Washington’s games finished with 57, 38, 71, 56 and 47 points (3-2 to the 52.5 point total). As I stated in my Commanders vs Ravens spread pick, Washington has benefited from going up against three offenses in the bottom 25th percentile in the league, and the Ravens resemble the Bucs defense more than the Bengals, Cardinals and Browns.
Only 16 of the 78 NFL contests this season finished with 54+ points, so this total is just too high for my liking. Expect the Ravens defense to stifle Daniels and the Commanders and back the Under this Sunday in Baltimore.
Commanders vs Ravens prediction: Over 52.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 53.