I’m back with weekly NFL picks, which you can find on Pickswise too. For NFL Week 5, I previewed games featuring three NFC West teams and the lone NFC North squad, the Green Bay Packers. Teams are rounding into form after the first month of the season, so let’s dive into my picks for Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers predictions
Cardinals vs 49ers Point Spread Pick: Arizona +7.5 (-110)
The Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers will face off in an NFC West rivalry this Sunday at Levi Stadium. The Cards enter this one after a disappointing home defeat to the Washington Commanders, 42-14. This defeat marked their second straight home loss, as they failed to score over 14 points for the second straight game. Arizona’s passing game has been unreliable through four games, but they’re still recording 153.3 rushing yards per contest (5th in the NFL). It seems like QB Kyler Murray is looking for rookie star WR Marvin Harrison Jr., and if he isn’t open, he has no other options. While Harrison has scored 4 TDs in the last three games, Murray must look for alternatives because teams will continue to double MHJ.
The 49ers play at home for the second straight week after they picked up a 30-13 victory over the New England Patriots. Although it was a great win, it was against the lowly Patriots, and I’m not going to say San Francisco has turned things around after they suffered road defeats to the Vikings and Rams in Week 2 and 3. The biggest issue for San Francisco is their health because star LB Fred Warner exited the game with an ankle injury in the first half while starting DT Jordan Elliott suffered the same fate. There is no way this defense will be 100% on Sunday, even though head coach Kyle Shanahan said both players are day-to-day entering this week’s practice.
The 49ers have recently dominated this matchup when playing at home, but this line seems high for a divisional rivalry. Additionally, the line opened at +9.5 before moving down to +7.5, and I don’t believe the public is rushing to back a Cardinals team that has scored just 27 points over the last two weeks. I said that I was buying low on Arizona in my Commanders vs Cardinals prediction in Week 4, and I’m taking that to another level. Let’s back the Cards again because Kyler Murray is 26-15-2 (62.8%) ATS as an underdog in his career compared to 10-16-0 (38.5%) as a favorite.
Cardinals vs 49ers prediction: Cardinals +7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to +7.
Cardinals vs 49ers Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Over 49.5 (-110)
The second half of my Cardinals vs 49ers predictions will focus on the total, and I expect a high-scoring affair in San Francisco. I discussed the Cardinals’ struggles on offense the last two weeks, but their defense has been atrocious, and I’m not sure how they’ll stop a 49ers offense that averages 413.3 yards per game (2nd in the NFL) because the Rams are giving up 26.5 PPG (29th in the NFL). San Francisco is only scoring a touchdown in 50% of their red zone drives (T20th in the NFL), but they shouldn’t run into this issue on Sunday because Arizona is allowing opponents to score a TD on 68.8% (25th in the NFL).
Although things are bleak for Arizona’s defense, I expect Kyler Murray to get this offense humming again. TE Trey McBride should return in Week 4 after missing Week 3 because of a concussion, and McBride had his first true breakout game last season against San Francisco. He recorded 10 catches on 11 targets for 102 yards, and if Fred Warner is not 100% this Sunday, he should be in for another big game. Additionally, San Francisco hasn’t had to deal with a mobile QB this season, as they’ve faced Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, Matt Stafford and Jacoby Brissett, and a banged-up linebacking core and secondary (S Talanoa Hufanga is questionable) could be fatal for the Niners.
The over has cashed in six of the two teams’ combined eight games this season and in four of the last five meetings between these squads in San Francisco. Finally, the weather forecast looks like it will be 90+ degrees at kickoff, which should negatively impact the defense, especially in the second half. Back the over as the second of my Cardinals vs 49ers best bets.
Cardinals vs 49ers prediction: Over 49.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 50.
Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams predictions
Packers vs Rams Point Spread Pick: Green Bay -3 (-115) – ⭐ ️BEST BET ⭐
The Green Bay Packers travel west for a matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, and I fully expect Green Bay to pick up a big win. QB Jordan Love returned last week from an MCL injury suffered in Week 1, and the Packers playcaller completed 32 of his 52 pass attempts for 389 yards and 4 touchdowns to go with 3 interceptions. It was a tale of two halves for the Packers, but Love looked like his normal self in the second half, and I expect much of the same against a Rams defense that allows 385.3 yards (31st in the NFL) and 28.8 points per contest (31st in the NFL). Los Angeles has four members of their secondary on IR, and they’re struggling to slow down any offense.
The hosts enter this game with a 1-3 record, and after pulling off a 27-24 upset against the 49ers in Week 3, they fell to the Chicago Bears 24-18 in Chicago. They outgained the Bears in that contest, but Matt Stafford fumbled at their own 13-yard line in the first half, which led to a Bears touchdown and threw an interception on the final drive of the game, which sealed their fate. The Rams aren’t a bad team, but the number of injuries they’ve suffered this season is too hard to ignore. WR Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will miss another week, and although Stafford has been able to somewhat produce with the help of RB Kyren Williams, I expect Green Bay to fully take away the Rams rushing attack, as they rank 11th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (109.3).
Green Bay will likely be without their leading WR Christian Watson, but Love still has plenty of targets to dominate a weak Rams secondary. Additionally, the Packers are 10-0 against the spread in these teams’ last 10 meetings and are 9-1 ATS in their previous 10 games against NFC West opponents. Expect the Packers to bounce back from last week’s disappointing loss to the Vikings, as they should win by 3+ points in LA.
Packers vs Rams prediction: Green Bay -3 (-115) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -130.
Packers vs Rams Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Over 47.5 (-110)
The second half of my Packers vs Rams prediction is for this game to finish with plenty of points. As stated above, the Rams secondary is dreadful, and they haven’t held an opponent to fewer than 24 points once this season. The Packers average 26.0 PPG (7th in the NFL), and they haven’t even been a strong scoring team in the red zone. Green Bay is scoring a touchdown on just 46.7% of red zone drives (23rd in the NFL), so if Matt LaFleur’s team can start finishing drives, this offense could rise to be one of the best in the league.
On the other side, the Rams offense is still putting up points even after losing their leading two wideouts in Nacua and Kupp. Veteran QB Matt Stafford is putting up 244.5 passing yards per game (T-8th in the NFL), and he’s done extremely well given who is at his disposal. I expect the Rams to take a pass-heavy approach due to the Packers strong rushing defense, which should lead to more clock stoppages and the potential for explosive plays. On that front, Green Bay’s offense leads the league in explosive plays, and the Rams are last in yards per pass and yards per play allowed.
While I expect the Packers to contribute the most toward this total, Los Angeles has scored 18+ points in three of their four games. The total has gone over in 8 of Green Bay’s last 9 games on the road, and 9 of the Rams’ last 12 games finished over the total. Expect both trends to continue this Sunday and back the Over as the final one of my Packers vs Rams best bets.
Packers vs Rams prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 48.5.