I’m back with another set of NFL predictions on Pickswise. In Week 2, I’ve zeroed in on a pair of games that could offer some early-season surprises. Scroll down to see where I’m placing my bets for NFL Week 2, as the Bengals visit the Kansas City Chiefs, and the New England Patriots host the Seattle Seahawks.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions
Bengals vs Chiefs Point Spread Pick: Cincinnati +5.5 (-110)
The Cincinnati Bengals suffered the biggest upset of NFL Week 1, falling to the New England Patriots 16-10 as 7.5-point favorites. Joe Burrow and the offense struggled to score, but it’s worth noting that they fumbled at the Patriots’ one-yard line in the second quarter and failed to convert a 3rd & 2 and 4th & 2 at NE’s 36-yard line in the 3rd quarter. It truly was a game of inches for Cinci, and I expect some sort of bounce back for them this week. On the other side, Kansas City led 27-17 against the Ravens with 10 minutes remaining, but Baltimore nearly forced the game to OT on the final play. This game feels like a true buy-low for the Bengals and a sell-high with the Chiefs.
In their five meetings, Joe Burrow and the Bengals are 3-2 against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, even though Kansas City has outscored them 127-125 in those games. Only one game has finished with either team winning by more than a field goal, and I expect a similar result this Sunday. The Bengals Ja’Marr Chase struggled in Week 1 against an astute Patriots secondary, but I have serious questions about Kansas City’s secondary. They lost lockdown CB L’Jarius Sneed in free agency, and I expect Chase to have a big bounce-back game, as he didn’t look like his normal self in Week 1.
This line opened up with the Chiefs as 7.5-point favorites, but it has slowly been moving down, and the spread now sits at 5.5. However, Kansas City was just a 3.5-point favorite when these odds came out in the offseason, so I’ll happily back the Bengals with the points as my main Bengals vs Chiefs prediction and will sprinkle them on the money line this Sunday.
Bengals vs Chiefs prediction: Cincinnati +5.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to +4.5.
Bengals vs Chiefs Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Over 48 (-110) – ⭐ ️BEST BET ⭐
My favorite Bengals vs Chiefs prediction is that there will be plenty of points at Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday. As I said in my spread prediction, I think there are plenty of questions surrounding Kansas City’s secondary, and I was not overly impressed with the Bengals defense in Week 1, specifically their defensive line. The Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson totaled 120 yards on the ground, and even though Cincinnati generated some pressure, QB Jacoby Brissett had just a 7.7% pressure-to-sack rate. This means Brissett got the ball out quickly and evaded any pressure Cinci sent. Do you know who is elite at evading pressure? Patrick Mahomes. The KC playcaller ranked second in the NFL in pressure-to-sack rate in 2023 at 11.2% and posted a 10.8% rate in 2022 and 12% in 2021. So, even if the Bengals can generate pressure, Mahomes should be able to get the ball out quick enough and pick apart a Bengals secondary that faced a below-average QB in Week 1.
These two teams have averaged 50.4 points in the five meetings between Burrow and Mahomes, and I expect this trend will continue on Sunday. Although the Chiefs may take a run-heavy approach to start, given the success the Patriots had on the ground, this should open up the play action in the second half, and I expect the Chiefs will score close to 30 points. Finally, since Burrow’s sophomore season, Cincinnati has averaged 31.7 points per game after an output of 17 or fewer points. Expect both offenses to light up the scoreboard in a back-and-forth affair.
Bengals vs Chiefs prediction: Over 48 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 49.
Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots Predictions
Seahawks vs Patriots Point Spread Pick: New England +3.5 (-110)
The Seattle Seahawks will travel across the country to take on the New England Patriots this Sunday, and I’m buying into what rookie head coach Jerod Mayo is cooking up in New England. OK – I don’t expect the Patriots to finish above 0.500 this season, but after going into Cincinnati and beating the Bengals 16-10, I liked what I saw from the Patriots defense. New England held the Bengals to just 224 total yards and forced two fumbles, and I expect they will have similar success against a Seattle offense that struggled to get out of the gates against the Denver Broncos. It wasn’t the prettiest start for the Seahawks, as QB Geno Smith was sacked to open the game before he threw an interception on the second play. However, Seattle cleaned it up in the second half and came back from a 13-9 deficit to win AND cover the -5.5 spread against the Broncos by a 26-20 scoreline.
The Seahawks were able to make halftime adjustments, but they won’t be able to just magically fix their makeshift offensive line. Although they recorded 146 rushing yards, the Broncos were able to put Smith under pressure for most of the game, and I don’t expect Seattle to have as much success on the ground against a Patriots front seven that allowed the third-fewest rush yards in Week 1. Additionally, Seattle has to travel across the country to take on New England, which means they could experience some jetlag from the cross-country flight. More specifically, Geno Smith has started at QB for Seattle in the Eastern Time Zone six times and is just 2-4 overall while being outscored by 19 points in those six games. I expect this to be an ugly game, so I’ll gladly take the Patriots with the points as one of my Seahawks vs Patriots predictions.
Seahawks vs Patriots prediction: New England +3.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to +3.
Seahawks vs Patriots Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Under 38.5 (-110)
The Seahawks vs Patriots prediction that I like more on Sunday is for the game to be extremely ugly and finish with 38 points or less. Although New England’s defense looked elite in Week 1, I’m not sure how this team will consistently put up points this season. RB Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 120 yards in Week 1 and New England’s offensive line surprised a lot of fans, but I don’t expect that to continue to the same degree in Week 2. Additionally, Seattle’s defense looked like one of the league’s best in Week 1, as they picked off rookie QB Bo Nix twice and could’ve had two more. The Broncos’ average expected points added (EPA) per play was -0.395, and the Seahawks allowed just 3.4 yards per play. Now, I do think New England’s offense is better than Denver’s but, I expect the Seahawks to make Jacoby Brissett beat them through the air, and I’m not sure he can do so.
On the flip side, this Patriots defense will be one of the league’s best, and none of the Bengals playmakers got going this past Sunday. Additionally, second-year edge rusher Keion White recorded 2.5 sacks and two tackles for a loss to go with three QB hits while the secondary held Jow Burrow to just 164 yards and zero touchdowns. CB Jonathon Jones made a huge fourth down stop to force a turnover on downs, and the entire defense was tackling like their season was on the line. This team feels like they’re buying into Mayo’s game plan and leadership, and I anticipate a raucous crowd at Gilette Stadium this Sunday. Neither offense should light it up, and I expect this game to finish in the teens on both sides, so I’ll back the under as my second Seahawks vs Patriots prediction.
Seahawks vs Patriots prediction: Under 38.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 38.