Each week, I write NFL predictions on Pickswise. For NFL Week 10, I’ve provided TWO best bets for Sunday’s football action. Keep reading to find out who I backed in the San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup. Also, see who I backed in the Pittsburgh Steelers vs Washington Commanders matchup.
San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions
49ers vs Buccaneers Point Spread Pick: San Francisco -6 (-110) – ⭐ ️BEST BET ⭐
The San Francisco 49ers will travel to the East Coast this Sunday for a 1 PM matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and I’m expecting a big win for the visitors. The 49ers have been plagued with injuries to their skill positions this season, as Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk have all missed multiple games, with the latter out for the season. However, CMC was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday, and if he plays this Sunday, San Fran should win by 10+. The Niners enter this game off a bye week, and Kyle Shanahan’s men are 4-1 in their last five games following a bye. Not only do they have an extra week of rest, but Tampa Bay enters this contest after a tough overtime defeat against the Kansas City Chiefs, and it feels like the wheels are starting to fall off for the Bucs.
Tampa Bay has its own injury crisis, as WR Chris Godwin suffered a season-ending ankle injury two weeks ago, and Mike Evans is still nursing a hamstring injury. Evans’ status for Sunday is ominous, as he didn’t practice on Wednesday, and WRs Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard were also absentees. Outside of TE Cade Otton, I’m not sure who QB Baker Mayfield can target this Sunday, and even RB Bucky Irvin was a limited participant on Wednesday. They showed tremendous grit fighting back in Kansas City last week to force overtime, but they came up short and have now lost three straight contests by an average of 7.0 points.
Both teams are entering must-win territory this season, but the Bucs’ playoff chances are much lower than San Francisco’s given that they’ve already dropped both games against the ATL Falcons this season. Additionally, QB Brock Purdy has had plenty of success traveling to the East Coast, as he is 4-1 in his career with an average win margin of 23.5 points in the four victories. The 49ers still have to play the Bills, Lions and Packers down the stretch, so this game feels like a must-win, and I’ll gladly back the 49ers to win by 7+ at Raymond James Stadium this Sunday.
49ers vs Buccaneers prediction: San Francisco -6 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -6.5 (-125).
49ers vs Buccaneers Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Under 51 (-110)
I expect this game to come down to the wire when it comes to the total, but I don’t think Tampa Bay will put up enough points for this game to go Over. As I stated in my side prediction, this Buccaneers offense is decimated, and even though they combined for 54 points with the KC Chiefs on MNF last week, 37 of them came in the second half and overtime. Now, they could be without WR Sterling Shepard, who contributed 69 total yards of offense last week. Not only that, but they’re going against a 49ers defense that allows just 314.8 yards (10th in the NFL) and 22.8 points per game (16th in the NFL) with an extra week of rest.
On the flip side, I do think San Francisco will put up points, but they’ve been hit or miss when it comes to scoring this season. The 49ers have scored 24 or fewer points in ½ their games this season, and even in their games where they scored more than this mark, the total finished with 54, 60, 43 and 51 points (52.0 points on average). So, even if the 49ers score 30+, Tampa Bay will need to contribute 21+ for this game to go Over, which would be a big surprise. The Bucs have played well at home this year, but that was mainly due to strong contributions from WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. This will be their first home contest without their elite WR duo, so they’ll need to lean on TE Cade Otton and their rushing attack. Unfortunately for them, San Francisco is giving up 38.3 yards per game to tight ends and allows just 105.8 rushing yards per contest (6th in the NFL).
Five of the last six meetings between these squads in Tampa Bay finished Under, and this Buccaneers offense is just too beat up to expect them to put up points.
49ers vs Buccaneers prediction: Under 51 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -120.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Washington Commanders Predictions
Steelers vs Commanders Point Spread Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5 (+100) – ⭐ ️BEST BET ⭐
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders will face off this Sunday in a battle between two of the biggest surprises this season. Pittsburgh’s win total was 8.5 entering the year, while Washington just surpassed their 6.5 win total with their 7th win last week. Additionally, WAS rookie QB Jayden Daniels is the odds-on favorite to win the NFL Rookie of the Year, and he’s even in the race for NFL MVP (+1000 at Caesars Sportsbook). Daniels has completely revitalized a Washington offense that ranks #1 in the NFL in expected points added (EPA), and it can’t be understated how he’s changed this team. However, he will have his work cut out for him this Sunday, as Pittsburgh is the best defense the Commanders will go up against this season.
The Steelers are 6th in the NFL in defensive EPA (-0.08 EPA) and give up just 14.9 points per game (2nd in the NFL). They’ve been extremely good at stopping the run (90.5 yards allowed per contest – 4th in the NFL), which is necessary against a Commanders offense that racks up 163.9 rushing yards per game (3rd in the NFL). Additionally, QB Russell Wilson has played great since his first start in Week 7, as the Steelers rank 5th in the NFL in offensive EPA with Wilson behind center. Now, he will face a Commanders defense that has played well the last three weeks, but those games were against the Giants, Bears and Panthers, who all rank in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring.
I expected this game to be closer to a pick ‘em, as the Commanders’ lone win against a team with a winning record is the Arizona Cardinals. Additionally, WAS Head Coach Dan Quinn is just 25-35 ATS as a favorite, while PIT Head Coach Mike Tomlin is 61-35-4 ATS and Wilson is 40-23-2 ATS as an underdog. Finally, the Steelers are coming off their bye week, and Tomlin’s team has gone 13-4 after the bye, winning 7 straight contests. Expect all four trends to continue this Sunday and back the Steelers to cover the spread and possibly win this game outright.
Steelers vs Commanders prediction: Pittsburgh +2.5 (+100) available at the time of publishing, playable down to +1.5 (-110).
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Steelers vs Commanders Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Under 45.5 (-110)
The second half of my Steelers vs Commanders predictions is for Sunday’s game to be a sloppy, low-scoring affair. I expect the Steelers to take away the Commanders’ rushing attack, which is their main source of offense. Not only is Pittsburgh elite at stopping the run, but they haven’t been giving up points away from home. The Steelers held the Falcons to 10 in Atlanta, Broncos to 6 in Denver, Raiders to 13 in Las Vegas, and only the Colts had success (27 points) against PIT.
For the Commanders, it will be about stopping the Steelers’ rushing attack and making Russell Wilson beat them through the air. Pittsburgh averages just 190.0 passing yards per game (26th in the NFL), and Washington traded for CB Marshon Lattimore from the Saints this week. He’s currently questionable for Sunday’s contest, but he’d be a big boost for the Commanders’ secondary. I expect Washington to stack the box against the Steelers because their rushing defense hasn’t been very strong this year (143.0 rushing yards allowed per game – 29th in the NFL).
The total has gone Over in 3 straight games for the Steelers, but 45.5 is the highest total Pittsburgh has seen all season. Additionally, the Under has cashed in 6 of Washington’s last 7 games against Pittsburgh, and a low-scoring game favors Pittsburgh. Therefore, I’ll back the Under this Sunday and expect this game to finish with both teams scoring fewer than 24 points.
Steelers vs Commanders prediction: Under 45.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 45 (-110).