Each week, I write NFL predictions on Pickswise. For NFL Week 11, I’ve provided picks for two 1 PM ET clashes. First, check out my pick for the Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins game in South Florida. Additionally, I have a pick for a crucial AFC North game between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins Predictions
Raiders vs Dolphins Point Spread Pick: Dolphins -7.5 (-110)
The Las Vegas Raiders will travel to South Beach for a Week 11 matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who just upset the Los Angeles Rams 23-15 on Monday Night Football. Neither team has been exactly lighting it up this season, as the Dolphins sit in 10th place in the AFC while the Raiders are in 15th. I don’t foresee Las Vegas turning things around and making the playoffs, and Miami would essentially have to run the table with a schedule that includes road games against the Packers and Texans and a home meeting with the 49ers, so I don’t foresee them making the playoffs either. These scenarios make Sunday’s game a tricky one to handicap, but I think the hosts can win by more than a TD.
Miami got back on track in Week 10, marking their first win by more than a touchdown this season. Although Las Vegas enters this game off their bye week and Miami is on a short week, I’m not sure how much Head Coach Anthony Pierce will be able to take advantage. Last season, the Raiders were shut out after their bye week, and we still don’t know whether QB Gardner Minshew or Desmond Ridder will be running the offense. Whoever starts better be ready to throw the rock because the Raiders are dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (76.9).
Now, Mike McDaniels hasn’t fared well when the Dolphins were on a short week in two situations this season, but it’s worth noting that both those games came against divisional rivals in the Bills and Patriots. Additionally, this Dolphins defense is severely underrated, and I’m not sure how Las Vegas is going to put up points. Miami held Matt Stafford and the Rams to six field goals this last week, and they’re giving up just 305.8 total yards (10th in the NFL) and 22.4 points (T-16th in the NFL) per game. When the Raiders have faced defenses in the top ½ of the league this season, they’ve scored an average of 16.8 points. Meanwhile, the Phins have struggled against top-tier defenses with Tua under center this year, but Las Vegas ranks 30th in the NFL in average points allowed (27.9). This one could be ugly, but I’ll be backing the Dolphins to win by 8+ this Sunday in Miami.
Raiders vs Dolphins prediction: Miami -7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to -8 (-110)
Raiders vs Dolphins Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Under 44.5 (-110)
When it comes to Raiders vs Dolphins picks, I feel much better backing the Under this Sunday. I’ve already discussed how I expect Miami to win at Hard Rock Stadium, and I’m not sure how you can have any confidence in this Raiders offense. They’ve struggled to score in their seven defeats this season, averaging just 17.4 points. They’ll have a better chance of scoring if Gardner Minshew starts, but if Pierce decides to go with Ridder, the Under is even more attractive. The Cincinnati Bearcats product has started 17 games in his career (all for the ATL Falcons), and he’s averaged just 17.7 points in those games. Now, he’ll go up against a Miami defense that just stifled the red-hot Rams in Los Angeles on Monday Night Football.
On the flip side, I expect the Raiders defense to benefit from the bye week, as team captain LB Robert Spillane was dealing with a knee injury in Week 9 even though he played. They should be 100% entering this game and have had two full weeks to scheme up a game plan against a Miami offense that hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders this season. Even with Tua under center, the Phins have scored an average of 21.4 points in five contests, and he didn’t look great against a Rams secondary that’s allowing 219.6 passing yards per contest (22nd in the NFL).
I anticipate a run-heavy approach for Miami, which should cause time to slowly tick off the clock. Additionally, the Under has cashed in 8 of Miami’s last 11 games and in 6 of their 9 games this season. The only way I see this game going Over is if the Phins offense suddenly decides to score 30+, but they haven’t done that once this season, so I’ll back the Under on Sunday.
Raiders vs Dolphins prediction: Under 44.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 44 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions
Ravens vs Steelers Point Spread Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-115) – ⭐ ️BEST BET ⭐
The Baltimore Ravens travel to Pittsburgh in an AFC North matchup against the Steelers this Sunday afternoon. This game marks the first divisional game for the hosts, who currently own a ½ game lead over the Ravens in the AFCN, as the Steelers will face six divisional opponents in their last eight games this season. Pittsburgh has been one of the biggest surprises this season and is coming off a thrilling 28-27 victory over the Washington Commanders on the road. I backed Mike Tomlin’s team in that game, and I’ll go back to the well this week. Although QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are having a great year, this Steelers team is firing on all cylinders with Russell Wilson under center, as Mr. Unlimited has thrown for 6 TDs and 1 INT in three starts, outscoring their opponents by 31 points in the process. Not only that, but the Steelers defense is one of the best in the NFL, as they give up just 16.2 PPG (2nd in the NFL).
The Ravens enter Sunday’s game in Pittsburgh after taking down the Cincinnati Bengals in thrilling fashion on Thursday Night Football, 35-34. QB Lamar Jackson is leading the pack for NFL MVP, as Baltimore’s playcaller is 1st in the NFL in average completion (9.3), total passing + rushing TDs (26), QBR (76.9), passer rating (123.2) and only trails Bengals QB Joe Burrow by 3 passing yards. As good as Jackson has been, he is just 1-3 all-time against the Steelers as a starter, completing just 59.1% of his passes to go with 4 TDs and 7 INTs. If any team in the NFL knows how to slow down Mr. Jackson, it’s Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
After last week, Tomlin improved to 62-35-4 ATS as an underdog, and Wilson is now 41-23-2 ATS in his career as an underdog. Not only that, but the Steelers have gone 7-3 SU (6-3-1 ATS) against Baltimore in the last 10 meetings, covering or pushing every single time as an underdog. When AFCN opponents face off, backing the underdog is typically the right way to go, and I’m all in on this Steelers team this Sunday.
Ravens vs Steelers prediction: Pittsburgh +3.5 (-115) available at the time of publishing, playable down to +3 (-110).
Ravens vs Steelers Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
The second half of my Ravens vs Steelers picks is for the game to go Under. Last week, I backed the Under in Washington, and although that finished Over, it wouldn’t have if the Steelers hadn’t decided to try a fake punt in the first half, which set the Commanders up for an easy touchdown. Either way, this is the highest total the Steelers have seen all season, and I can’t see this game turning into a shootout. I already discussed Lamar Jackson’s struggles against the Steelers in the past, and there have been an average of 41.2 points in those four meetings. Additionally, this Steelers defense essentially had a dress rehearsal last weekend against a mobile QB in Jayden Daniels, who rushed for a season-low 5 yards in the loss.
On the flip side, there’s no denying that Baltimore’s passing defense is awful, as they give up 294.9 passing yards per contest (last in the NFL). However, Pittsburgh has mainly relied on their two-headed rushing attack of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, posting 138.3 yards per contest (8th in the NFL). Although Wilson has been good under center, I still expect Tomlin to take a run-heavy approach. This will be where the game is won or lost because Baltimore allows 73.0 rushing yards per contest (1st in the NFL). I expect Russ to be able to make some plays, but I don’t expect Pittsburgh to score 30+, as they’ve only done that in 3 of their 9 games this year.
The biggest concern for this game going Over is the status of Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton and Pittsburgh cornerback Donte Jackson, who both left their Week 10 games with injuries. They’re questionable for Sunday’s contest, and both secondaries will be more vulnerable if they can’t suit up. Additionally, the Steelers will be without OLB Alex Highsmith, but they just added OLB Preston Smith before the trade deadline, and second-year edge Nick Herbig will be back in the mix after missing the last four games. Either way, expect a feisty division game in Pittsburgh, as the Under has cashed in this meeting in five of the previous six home games with the Steelers as the hosts. Expect Pittsburgh to pull off the upset in a gritty win, as I see this game finishing with both teams in the low 20s.
Ravens vs Steelers prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 48 (-110).