Each week, I break down my favorite NFL picks over at Pickswise. For Week 3, I’m focusing on two games involving the Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys. Check out my best betting plays for NFL Week 3 right here.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers predictions
Chargers vs Steelers Point Spread Pick: Pittsburgh -1.5 (-108) – ⭐ ️BEST BET ⭐
John Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers will play another game on the East Coast in NFL Week 3, as they travel north to take on Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s slightly surprising that these two teams are both 2-0, as there wasn’t too much hype around either roster entering the season. However, both defenses have played extremely well through two weeks. The Chargers took down the Raiders and Panthers, allowing 13 combined points in the process, while the Steelers have two road wins over the Atlanta Falcons (18-10) and Denver Broncos (13-6). Now, I don’t expect any of those four teams to make the playoffs, but the Raiders just upset the Ravens on the road, while the Falcons mounted a 4th quarter comeback against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. This game is the Steelers home opener, and while I expect it to come down to the wire, Pittsburgh should pull away in the end.
While the Chargers offensive line has done well so far this year, this Steelers front seven is playing on another level. They’re giving up just 3.7 rushing yards per attempt (7th in the NFL), and opposing QBs have just a 56.8 passer rating through two games (1st in the NFL). J.K. Dobbins has been a big reason for the Chargers’ success this season (9.9 yards per carry), but running backs have tallied more than 5.0 yards per carry against Pittsburgh in just 3 of their previous 19 regular season games. Additionally, the Pittsburgh crowd should be rocking for the home opener, and this is more of a road test than the Chargers had last week when they beat the lowly Panthers in Carolina. The Steelers have won 21 games in the regular season since Ben Roethlisberger retired, and every victory was by 2+ points. There’s no need to pay the extra juice on the money line, so my first Chargers vs Steelers prediction will be to back Pittsburgh on the spread.
Chargers vs Steelers prediction: Pittsburgh -1.5 (-108) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -2.
Chargers vs Steelers Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Over 35.5 (-110)
The second one of my Chargers vs Steelers best bets is for Sunday’s game to get over the point total. I know I discussed how good the two defenses have played so far this season, but I think this total is too low. The Steelers offense hasn’t truly got going, but they’ve faced two decent defenses in Atlanta and Denver, and both games came on the road. In the last two seasons, the Steelers have averaged 19.1 points per game at home compared to 17.0 on the road.
On the other side, the Chargers are averaging 24.0 PPG through two weeks, and while I expect Pittsburgh to hold them to 20 or fewer points, they should be able to contribute at least 17 points. Justin Herbert has scored 17+ points in 55 of 64 games as the Chargers starting quarterback, and three of the games in which he failed to do so came during Weeks 12-14 last year, which was right before he was sidelined for a broken index finger on his throwing hand. Both defenses have been the highlights for these two teams, but don’t be surprised when this game finishes over the total.
Chargers vs Steelers prediction: Over 35.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 36.
Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys predictions
Ravens vs Cowboys Point Spread Pick: Baltimore ML (-118)
The Baltimore Ravens will travel to Dallas, Texas in the FOX Game of the Week to take on the Cowboys, and although it’s early in the season, this spot feels like a must-win for both squads. While the Cowboys went into Cleveland and dominated the Browns in Week 1, they were annihilated by the New Orleans Saints in their home opener last weekend, 44-19. Meanwhile, the Ravens were inches away from either going for a 2-PT conversion and the win in Week 1 against the Chiefs, but they followed that defeat by blowing a lead in the 4th quarter to the Las Vegas Raiders, 26-23. Neither team has truly lived up to expectations to start the season, but I expect a bigger response from Lamar Jackson and Baltimore this week.
One of the Ravens’ biggest issues thus far has been the penalties, as they are dead last in the NFL in net penalty yards with -113. Miami is second-to-last in that category, and they’re at -77, which shows how undisciplined this Baltimore team has been. If they cleaned this up alone, they likely would be 2-0, and I expect them to be laser-focused this week. The Saints showed how to beat this Cowboys defense, as they tallied 242 passing and 190 rushing yards in Week 2, and Lamar Jackson should be able to run all over this Cowboys defense. Now, Dallas’ offense has looked good through two weeks, Dak Prescott is still prone to turning the ball over, and the Ravens defense has a pick in both games thus far.
I expect Baltimore will force Dallas to run the ball, as the Cowboys average just 85.0 rushing yards per game (25th in the NFL), and in the end, they will pick up a big road win to help stop their early-season slide. Lamar Jackson has never lost 3 straight games as the Ravens starting QB, and I don’t expect that streak to be broken in Dallas this week.
Ravens vs Cowboys prediction: Ravens ML (-112) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -125.
Ravens vs Cowboys Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Over 48.5 (-110)
The second of my Ravens vs Cowboys predictions is for the game to have plenty of points, and all signs point to a shootout in Dallas this Sunday. As stated in my spread prediction, I expect both teams to feel the pressure of starting the season on the wrong foot, and this should trigger a response from both offenses. Additionally, neither team has awful on that side of the ball, as the Cowboys average 26.0 PPG (7th in the NFL), while the Ravens put up 21.5 PPG (14th in the NFL), so both squads are in the top half of scoring in the NFL. Baltimore’s offense feels like it hasn’t reached its full potential either, but they showed signs of life in the second half of both games this year, so Harbaugh will be preaching to his team that they need to start stronger than they have so far.
The second portion of this prediction is that I don’t think either defense is particularly strong. Yes, they both have big names on the defensive line, but the Cowboys were torn apart by the Saints last weekend while the Ravens couldn’t stop a Gardner Minshew-led Raiders team during the second half of last week’s defeat. Baltimore is giving up the most passing yards per game in the NFL through two games (257.0 yards per game), and Dallas is in the back half of the NFL at stopping the run (141.5 yards per game). Additionally, the Ravens have allowed 26.5 PPG (28th in the NFL), and the Cowboys have given up 30.5 PPG (29th in the NFL). Expect a high-scoring and entertaining affair in Dallas for the FOX Game of the Week.
Ravens vs Cowboys prediction: Over 48.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 49.