The month of September has flown by, but I’m still back with my NFL Week 4 predictions, which you can also find on Pickswise. This week, I found an AFC and NFC matchup to target, so let’s get into my Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals predictions for NFL Week 4.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts predictions
Steelers vs Colts Point Spread Pick: Pittsburgh -1.5 (-110)
The undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers will head to Indianapolis this week for a Week 4 matchup with the Colts, and I fully expect Mike Tomlin’s men to continue their undefeated run. The Colts enter this matchup with a 1-2 record after they picked up their first win this past Saturday against the Bears, 21-16. They tallied 150 rushing yards in that one, which appears to be the only way they’ll win football games this year because QB Anthony Richardson is completing just 49.3% of his passes to go with 3 TDs and 6 INTs. Although he’s an absolute specimen of arm power, the accuracy hasn’t been there, and he will struggle against a Pittsburgh defense that’s giving up just 157.7 passing yards per contest (5th in the NFL) while recording 4 INTs.
Pittsburgh picked up their first home of the season after starting 2-0 on the road, as they suffocated a Chargers offense that had previously had their way via the run game. The Chargers had 176 and 219 rushing yards in their first two wins but managed to record just 61 yards on the ground in Pittsburgh. In my best bet last week, I discussed how Pittsburgh would take away the ground game from the Chargers, and they did exactly that. I expect a similar story in Indianapolis, as the Colts average 131.3 rushing yards per contest (11th in the NFL), but they’re facing a Steelers defense allowing just 71.3 rushing yards on average (T-2 in the NFL).
The Steelers have a two-game lead in the AFC North through three weeks, and I expect them to continue to put pressure on the Bengals, Browns and Ravens, who have all had slow starts to the year. Additionally, this Colts defense could be without two starters on defense, as DE Tyquan Lewis and CB Kenny Moore II did not participate in Wednesday’s practice. RT Braden Smith also has a questionable tag for Sunday, and if he cannot play, Indy’s ground game will suffer. Overall, this feels like a game that could get ugly early, which tends to play in Pittsburgh’s favor, and I expect them to win and cover the -1.5 point spread, as they’ve now won by 2+ points in 22 regular season games since Ben Roethlisberger retired.
Steelers vs Colts prediction: Pittsburgh -1.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -2.5.
Steelers vs Colts Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Under 40 (-110)
The second of my Steelers vs Colts predictions goes hand-in-hand with the first, as I expect this game to be an ugly, low-scoring affair. The Steelers defense has looked like the best unit in the NFL through three weeks, as they haven’t given up more than 10 points in a single contest. The biggest concern I have around this unit is Alex Highsmith, as he suffered a groin injury during the first half of their Week 3 win and did not practice on Wednesday.
Highsmith and TJ Watt have been one of the best edge rush duos so far this NFL season, and it would dampen the strength of this front seven if they were to lose him for an extended period. Although his status is worth monitoring, this defense will still be able to stack the box against a Colts offense that averages just 184.3 passing yards per game (24th in the NFL).
Pittsburgh is giving up just 8.7 points per game (1st in the NFL) while the Colts allow a respectful 20.3 points per contest (14th in the NFL). While neither team has had to go up against many Super Bowl contenders thus far, I expect these squads to be competitive throughout the entire regular season and make a push for a wild-card spot as we approach the postseason. Five of the Colts and Steelers’ six games have finished with fewer than 40 points, as Indy’s games ended with 56, 26 and 37 compared to Pittsburgh’s 28, 19 and 30-point totals. The Colts got into a shootout with the Houston Texans in their season opener, but I don’t expect that to happen in Indianapolis on Sunday. Back the Under as the second of my Steelers vs Colts best bets in NFL Week 4.
Steelers vs Colts prediction: Under 40 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 38.5.
Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals predictions
Commanders vs Cardinals Point Spread Pick: Arizona -3 (-115) – ⭐ ️BEST BET ⭐
The Washington Commanders travel to the desert for a 4:05 PM ET kickoff against the Arizona Cardinals, and I absolutely love this spot for the home team. Arizona is coming off a tough 20-13 home defeat at the hands of the Detroit Lions, and I expect them to respond after recording their lowest point total by a wide margin this season. QB Kyler Murray has looked great through three games, as he has 635 passing yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT to go with 161 rushing yards on just 15 carries. Arizona never got their running game going this past weekend (77 yards), which was partly because they gave up on running the ball after going down 20-7 in the first half. However, I don’t expect them to struggle to move the ball this week, as Washington is giving up 377.3 total yards per contest this season (29th in the NFL).
The Commanders picked up an electric 38-33 road win last week against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football, but I’m not putting as much stock into that victory as I would at the start of the year due to Cinci’s 0-3 start. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has looked great through three weeks, but he’ll now be playing in the first short week of his young career, and I expect the Cardinals defense to take full advantage of the extra day of preparation. Additionally, Washington is pretty banged up, as starting RG Sam Cosmi, starting DE Clelin Ferrell and RB Austin Ekeler were all DNPs in Wednesday’s practice and will likely miss Sunday’s contest. On the other side, TE Trey McBride and DL Khyiris Tonga are in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game, but Arizona is still in a better spot from a health perspective.
Arizona is 10-5 at home against the NFC East since 2010, and I expect them to pick up their 11th win this Sunday. This line had the Cardinals as -5.5 favorites before the Commanders’ surprise victory in Cincinnati, and while I like what I’ve seen from Daniels thus far, this is a great buy-low and sell-high spot. Expect Washington’s rookie QB to struggle on a short week while dealing with traveling to a different time zone and back the Cardinals to cover the spread as the best bet from my Commanders vs Cardinals predictions.
Commanders vs Cardinals prediction: Cardinals -3 (-115) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -130.
Commanders vs Cardinals Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Over 50.5 (-108)
Another of my Commanders vs Cardinals best bets is for Sunday’s game to turn into a shootout. Neither defense has been strong this season, and both units could be missing a starter on the defensive line this Sunday. Arizona ranks in the middle of the NFL in passing (16th) and rushing yards (19th) allowed this year, while Washington gives up 255.7 passing (31st in the NFL) and 121.7 rushing yards per contest (17th in the NFL). The hosts have had to face three high-powered offenses in the Bills, Rams and Lions, but they specifically struggled in their 34-28 defeat to Buffalo, as they had no answer for Bills QB Josh Allen. While they’ve rebounded since that game, I don’t expect Arizona to hold the Commanders to fewer than 20 points, as Washington has 20, 21 and 38 points in their three games to start the season.
Not only is neither defense extremely strong, but both team’s secondaries are suspect at best. I already mentioned how Washington gives up the 2nd-most passing yards in the NFL on average, but that number is even more glaring when you realize it’s come against the Buccaneers (22nd in passing), Giants (20th in passing) and Bengals (6th in passing). While the game against Cincinnati can be forgiven, it’s worth noting that the Bengals have been in losing situations every game this season and rank 28th in the league in average rushing yards. Now, the Commanders will have to deal with Kyler Murray, who can also beat them with his legs and will be the best dual-threat QB they’ve faced thus far.
The Cardinals defense has looked good at home the past two weeks, but containing Jayden Daniels will be much more difficult and similar to stopping Allen than Matt Stafford or Jared Goff. These two teams have finished with 51+ points in four of their six regular season games this season, so I expect Daniels and the Commanders offense to keep this game relatively close, which should help push this game over the total.
Commanders vs Cardinals prediction: Over 50.5 (-108) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 51.