Each week of the NFL season, I’ll post my weekly plays on Pickswise. For NFL Week 8, I’ve targeted two divisional matchups, as the Falcons travel to the Buccaneers for an NFC South contest, and the Colts take on the Texans in the AFC South.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions
Falcons vs Buccaneers Point Spread Pick: Atlanta -2.5 (-110)
The Atlanta Falcons will travel to Tampa Bay this weekend for an NFC South matchup against the Buccaneers. Both teams are coming off defeats in Week 7, but the Bucs lost much more than just the game. Stars wide receivers Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle) both exited Monday’s game against the Ravens, and QB Baker Mayfield will now have to target other wideouts for the foreseeable future. It remains to be seen what the Bucs passing attack will look like moving forward, but I expect them to rely heavily on their rushing attack and utilize TE Cade Otton as much as possible.
On the flip side, the Falcons suffered a 34-14 home defeat against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 7, but the scoreline is a bit misleading. Atlanta actually outgained Seattle by 30 yards, but two Kirk Cousins INTs and a fumble return TD proved to be the difference between a close game and a 20-point defeat. They entered the game riding a three-game winning streak, and Atlanta may have been slightly looking ahead to this week’s divisional game. However, I expect them to rebound well, as they are 3-0 in the NFC South this season, and a win in Tampa Bay would be a huge boost toward their chances of winning the division. Additionally, the Falcons are 2-0 on the road this year compared to 2-3 at home, so they’ve shown they can win outside of Mercedes Benz Stadium.
A healthy Buccaneers receiving core would likely flip this spread toward Tampa Bay, but it cannot be understated how much Evans and Godwin mean to this offense, as they’ve accounted for 49% of the Bucs’ receiving yards and 61.1% of their receiving TDs this season. Atlanta is 4-1 against the spread when facing Tampa Bay in the teams’ last five meetings, and I’ll gladly back that trend to continue in Week 8 on Sunday.
Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction: Atlanta -2.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -3.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Under 46 (-110)
The second half of my Falcons vs Buccaneers goes hand-in-hand with my first pick, as I expect Tampa Bay’s offense to struggle to put up points this Sunday. As I’ve stated, losing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will negatively impact the passing attack, which should allow the Falcons to focus on the Bucs’ rushing attack. When these teams faced off earlier this month, Tampa tallied 160 yards on the ground, which kept the Bucs in the game. They actually only recorded 173 passing yards in the 36-30 defeat, but Baker Mayfield played flawlessly, as he was 19/24 with 3 passing TDs (2 of which went to Mike Evans). Now, he won’t have nearly as many options to turn to, and I expect Atlanta to bring plenty of blitz packages, as Mayfield has been blitzed at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL (71 times) and will be playing without his top-2 options for the first time this year.
Atlanta had a lot of success with their passing attack when these teams first faced off, as Kirk Cousin was 42/58 for 509 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT. However, I don’t expect the same level of success this time around because Tampa Bay was missing two starters in that game, CB Antoine Winfield and DL Calijah Kancey. Additionally, Atlanta’s offense has been inconsistent at best this year, as they’ve scored 10, 21, 17, 26, 36, 38 and 14 points this year. Since these two teams have already faced off, I expect both defenses to make adjustments, which should lead to a lower-scoring contest. Neither defense is playing off the charts this year, but I anticipate an ugly game in Tampa Bay and will back the Under this Sunday.
Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction: Under 46 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 45.
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans predictions
Colts vs Texans Point Spread Pick: Texans -5 (-108) – ⭐ ️BEST BET ⭐
The Houston Texans will host the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday in the second matchup between these two squads this year. They faced off in Week 1, and the Texans picked up a 29-27 road victory. Although the scoreline made that game appear close, Houston outgained Indy by 114 yards and had the ball twice as long as the Colts. Indy needed two 50+ yard passing TDs from Anthony Richardson to stay competitive in that game, and I wouldn’t expect a similar performance from the sophomore QB. Since that game, Richardson has completed just 48.8% of his passes to go with 1 TD and 5 INTs. They were able to scrape by the Dolphins 16-10 last weekend, but they’ll need to score 24+ to keep Sunday’s game close.
The Texans enter this game off a tough 24-22 road loss to the Green Bay Packers, marking their second defeat of the season against the NFC North. Head coach Demeco Ryans managed the clock poorly in the 4Q, but he will learn from his mistakes, and I expect he will have his team locked in this week. Houston currently sits atop the AFC South, and a win this weekend would more than likely seal the deal for a division title, as they would be two games ahead of the Colts and own the tiebreaker. Additionally, the Texans have been much better when playing at home dating back to last year, as they are 10-3 at NRG Stadium with QB CJ Stround under center, posting an average win margin of 11.0 points in the 10 victories.
Anthony Richardson has started just one road game this year, which was a 16-10 defeat to the Packers, and I have zero faith that he will somehow turn things around against a divisional foe. Additionally, the Texans are 6-1 SU when rushing for 120+ yards since Stroud and Ryans took over last year, and the Colts are giving up 134.8 rushing yards per contest in the same timeframe (29th in the NFL during that span). The only thing that could make me lean towards Indy is the fact that they should get RB Jonathon Taylor back from injury, but the Texans were able to keep him in check in Week 1 (16 rushing attempts for 48 yards), so I don’t foresee him making a major impact. I’ll back the Texans to win by a TD or more, as they are 7-1 SU following a loss with Stroud as their QB and have won those seven contests by an average of 9.14 points.
Colts vs Texans prediction: Houston -5 (-108) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -6.
Colts vs Texans Game Total (Over/Under) Pick: Under 46 (-110)
The second of my Colts vs Texans predictions is for Sunday’s contest in Houston to be a low-scoring affair. As I stated in my spread pick, the first meeting between these squads finished with 56 total points, but that was mainly due to two quick TDs from Richardson. I don’t expect Houston to allow Richardson to attack them with the long ball, and I think they will follow a run-heavy approach on offense against a Colts defense that simply cannot stop the run. Indianapolis is giving up 159.9 rushing yards per game (31st in the NFL), so I expect a big game for Houston RB Joe Mixon.
In the Colts’ three losses, they’ve given up 200 rushing yards per contest compared to 129.8 in their four wins. I expect Houston to win this game, which should result in longer drives and more time coming off the clock. Additionally, these two teams don’t traditionally have high-scoring affairs, as their last 10 meetings finished with an average of 44.7 points, and 7 of those 10 games finished Under even though the average point total across that span is 45.9.
The total has gone Under in every Texans’ home game this season and in five of their last six games, while Indianapolis has seen four of their previous six games go Under this year. Expect all three trends to continue on Sunday and back the Under in the second meeting between the Colts and Texans.
Colts vs Texans prediction: Under 46 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 45.